Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.4% vs 56.3%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Miller 55.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 54.6%
Defensive zone
Miller 56.9%
Neutral zone
Miller 54.5%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Larkin
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Larkin
Miller
Last 8: Larkin 4-4 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Miller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Miller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
0
2
Larkin
Miller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
56.3% (1,033)
-0.4%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
62.5% (253)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
47.4% (175)
-1.2%
On power play, Miller has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Miller is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Larkin
Miller
Home
56.0% (654)
58.6% (734)
Away
54.8% (639)
54.1% (727)
By Period
Larkin
Miller
P1
54.4%
57.1%
P2
55.9%
57.0%
P3
55.2%
54.7%
OT
64.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:36 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:25 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 18:49 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 16:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |