Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs McBain 50.9% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 60.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Larkin
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Larkin
McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
McBain
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
0
1
Larkin
McBain
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
52.1% (545)
-0.4%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
57.1% (14)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
37.0% (46)
+11.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. McBain is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Larkin
McBain
Home
52.4% (647)
52.2% (289)
Away
52.7% (643)
50.0% (316)
By Period
Larkin
McBain
P1
52.2%
52.6%
P2
53.1%
53.6%
P3
51.7%
47.1%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Jack McBain |