Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs McBain 46.7% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 95.0%
Defensive zone
Larkin 79.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 85.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 90.7%
90.7%
9.3%
Larkin
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Larkin
McBain
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
0
Larkin
McBain
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
2
Larkin
McBain
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
48.0% (2,298)
+3.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
49.0% (51)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
35.7% (308)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. McBain is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,667).
Home / Away
Larkin
McBain
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.0% (1,359)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
44.0% (1,298)
By Period
Larkin
McBain
P1
52.7%
46.7%
P2
53.1%
47.5%
P3
52.1%
45.6%
OT
58.4%
37.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 09:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 06:33 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 01:15 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |