Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.3% vs Carter 51.1% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 67.7%
Defensive zone
Carter 56.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 50.0%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Larkin
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larkin
Carter
Last 6: Larkin 4-2 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Carter
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (973)
52.2% (552)
-1.2%
Power Play
59.5% (252)
56.4% (94)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (137)
41.0% (100)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Larkin is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Larkin shoots left. Carter is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carter
Home
54.9% (721)
51.2% (324)
Away
49.6% (641)
51.2% (422)
By Period
Larkin
Carter
P1
52.4%
49.8%
P2
50.8%
52.8%
P3
54.4%
51.2%
OT
43.8%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2019 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 1 | 11:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 3 | 16:34 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 3 | 16:24 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 2 | 12:13 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 14, 2019 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |