Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Carter 60.1% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 50.1%
Defensive zone
Carter 88.3%
Neutral zone
Carter 73.1%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Larkin
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larkin
Carter
Last 6: Larkin 4-2 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
2
Larkin
Carter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
65.6% (262)
-9.7%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
68.3% (63)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
50.5% (99)
-4.3%
On power play, Carter has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Carter is 63.9% vs left-shot opponents (335).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carter
Home
56.0% (654)
64.3% (207)
Away
54.8% (639)
60.8% (217)
By Period
Larkin
Carter
P1
54.4%
65.3%
P2
55.9%
60.1%
P3
55.2%
63.8%
OT
64.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
65.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
62.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 14:04 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 10:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |