Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Carter 56.4% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 84.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 72.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 75.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 76.4%
76.4%
23.6%
Larkin
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Larkin
Carter
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
6
Larkin
Carter
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
2
5
Larkin
Carter
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
57.9% (885)
-6.1%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
61.7% (133)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
45.4% (119)
+2.0%
On even strength, Carter has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Larkin shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carter
Home
55.6% (662)
58.2% (543)
Away
48.3% (542)
55.9% (594)
By Period
Larkin
Carter
P1
49.9%
57.5%
P2
52.7%
57.1%
P3
53.0%
55.8%
OT
68.0%
68.2%
Final 5 min
49.3%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 11:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 02:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:05 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | OT | 03:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 18:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 14:52 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 12:04 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 00:27 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 19:49 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 10:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 05:59 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 05:54 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 2 | 00:40 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |