Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 53.2%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Carter 53.2% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 25-23 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 53.8%
Defensive zone
Carter 52.5%
Neutral zone
Carter 50.8%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Larkin
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
25
(48 meetings)
23
25
Larkin
Carter
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
11
4
Larkin
Carter
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
7
14
Larkin
Carter
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
5
7
Larkin
Carter
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
53.3% (8,728)
-1.6%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
57.3% (1,554)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
46.3% (1,087)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carter
Home
54.0% (6,238)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Larkin
Carter
P1
52.7%
53.6%
P2
53.1%
52.8%
P3
52.1%
53.1%
OT
58.4%
56.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 14:04 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 1 | 10:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2023 | 3 | 07:17 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 17:46 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 11:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 05:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 02:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:05 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | OT | 03:55 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 18:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 3 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |