Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Carter 58.5% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.3%
Defensive zone
Carter 64.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Larkin
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Larkin
Carter
Last 7: Larkin 3-4 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Carter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
2
Larkin
Carter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
Larkin
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
59.7% (727)
-6.1%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
68.1% (72)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
53.2% (139)
-4.5%
On power play, Carter has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carter
Home
56.6% (700)
58.7% (455)
Away
52.1% (655)
60.0% (483)
By Period
Larkin
Carter
P1
55.4%
61.3%
P2
54.7%
57.1%
P3
52.7%
59.8%
OT
59.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.0%
60.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 17:46 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 09:25 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 08:30 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |