Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs Toews 58.4% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 72.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 60.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 67.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Larkin
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Larkin
Toews
Last 8: Larkin 3-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Toews
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
5
Larkin
Toews
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
58.0% (901)
-6.2%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
69.5% (226)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
51.7% (209)
-4.3%
On power play, Toews has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Larkin shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Home / Away
Larkin
Toews
Home
55.6% (662)
59.3% (637)
Away
48.3% (542)
58.7% (699)
By Period
Larkin
Toews
P1
49.9%
61.5%
P2
52.7%
55.2%
P3
53.0%
60.0%
OT
68.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
49.3%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:00 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:24 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 09:48 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 02:20 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 13:04 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |