Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Toews 61.9% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 55.5%
Defensive zone
Toews 53.5%
Neutral zone
Toews 54.5%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Larkin
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Toews
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
1
Larkin
Toews
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
61.1% (650)
-7.5%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
71.9% (192)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
59.6% (99)
-10.9%
On power play, Toews has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Toews is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Larkin
Toews
Home
56.6% (700)
64.8% (560)
Away
52.1% (655)
60.6% (381)
By Period
Larkin
Toews
P1
55.4%
62.3%
P2
54.7%
63.9%
P3
52.7%
62.8%
OT
59.1%
70.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
60.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
63.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2 | 11:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 1 | 12:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |