Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Toews 60.3% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 78.0%
Defensive zone
Toews 51.9%
Neutral zone
Toews 66.9%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Larkin
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Larkin
Toews
Last 7: Larkin 4-3 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
0
3
Larkin
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Toews
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
62.5% (696)
-10.8%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
59.6% (141)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
46.9% (32)
+1.3%
On even strength, Toews has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Home / Away
Larkin
Toews
Home
52.4% (647)
60.9% (435)
Away
52.7% (643)
62.0% (434)
By Period
Larkin
Toews
P1
52.2%
59.8%
P2
53.1%
65.7%
P3
51.7%
58.8%
OT
61.3%
80.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 10:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:24 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |