Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 31 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Toews 57.9% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 34-33 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 62.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 59.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 60.2%
60.2%
39.8%
Larkin
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
34
(67 meetings)
33
34
Larkin
Toews
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
10
Larkin
Toews
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
13
18
Larkin
Toews
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
6
Larkin
Toews
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
57.2% (13,047)
-5.5%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
63.3% (3,252)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
53.6% (1,810)
-3.4%
On even strength, Toews has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Home / Away
Larkin
Toews
Home
54.0% (6,238)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Larkin
Toews
P1
52.7%
58.6%
P2
53.1%
57.8%
P3
52.1%
57.3%
OT
58.4%
58.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 10:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:24 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2 | 11:03 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 1 | 12:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:00 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:25 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:24 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 09:48 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 02:20 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 13:04 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 18:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2020 | 3 | 14:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |