Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.7% vs 52.1%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Norris 52.1% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 28-26 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 54.5%
Defensive zone
Norris 51.6%
Neutral zone
Norris 52.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Larkin
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
28
(54 meetings)
26
28
Larkin
Norris
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
12
5
Larkin
Norris
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
4
11
Larkin
Norris
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
10
12
Larkin
Norris
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
52.5% (3,057)
-0.8%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
53.7% (404)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
45.4% (240)
+4.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,392).
Home / Away
Larkin
Norris
Home
54.0% (6,238)
53.1% (1,856)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
51.2% (1,845)
By Period
Larkin
Norris
P1
52.7%
55.6%
P2
53.1%
51.4%
P3
52.1%
50.1%
OT
58.4%
40.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 10:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 05:39 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 10:54 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 06:55 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:32 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 18:10 | Offensive | Josh Norris |