Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 53.8%). Look for Norris on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Norris 53.4% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 64.7%
Defensive zone
Norris 53.0%
Neutral zone
Norris 51.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Larkin
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
12
(25 meetings)
13
12
Larkin
Norris
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
3
Larkin
Norris
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
2
5
Larkin
Norris
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
4
Larkin
Norris
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
53.6% (560)
-1.0%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
56.0% (109)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
53.1% (98)
+2.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Norris is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Larkin
Norris
Home
54.7% (783)
53.6% (373)
Away
54.3% (816)
54.1% (394)
By Period
Larkin
Norris
P1
55.9%
61.8%
P2
56.1%
51.7%
P3
51.1%
49.8%
OT
66.7%
27.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 10:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 3 | 05:39 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 10:54 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 06:55 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 07:50 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 07:19 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:32 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 18:10 | Offensive | Josh Norris |