Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Stenlund 51.2% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Stenlund 52.7%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 86.9%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 75.2%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 76.8%
23.2%
76.8%
Larkin
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Larkin
Stenlund
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Stenlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
8
Larkin
Stenlund
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
3
Larkin
Stenlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
54.4% (592)
+1.5%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
42.9% (14)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
44.1% (229)
+2.1%
On power play, Larkin has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stenlund
Home
56.0% (654)
50.7% (402)
Away
54.8% (639)
52.0% (433)
By Period
Larkin
Stenlund
P1
54.4%
56.5%
P2
55.9%
52.4%
P3
55.2%
45.2%
OT
64.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | OT | 00:34 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:47 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 17, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 1 | 19:51 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:29 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |