Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 11-1 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 89.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 60.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 68.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Larkin
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
11
(12 meetings)
1
11
Larkin
Stenlund
Last 10: Larkin 1-9 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
2
Larkin
Stenlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
9
Larkin
Stenlund
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
58.6% (797)
-6.0%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
62.5% (24)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
60.5% (233)
-4.6%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stenlund
Home
54.7% (783)
58.6% (548)
Away
54.3% (816)
59.7% (506)
By Period
Larkin
Stenlund
P1
55.9%
60.2%
P2
56.1%
59.1%
P3
51.1%
58.3%
OT
66.7%
58.6%
Final 5 min
51.8%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 16:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 15:09 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 18:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:09 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |