Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Stenlund 54.3% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 85.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 53.7%
Neutral zone
Larkin 69.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Larkin
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Larkin
Stenlund
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Stenlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
11
Larkin
Stenlund
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
56.1% (615)
-4.4%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
53.2% (47)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
52.1% (307)
-3.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stenlund
Home
52.4% (647)
57.0% (458)
Away
52.7% (643)
52.6% (511)
By Period
Larkin
Stenlund
P1
52.2%
55.1%
P2
53.1%
53.3%
P3
51.7%
56.4%
OT
61.3%
42.1%
Final 5 min
55.2%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |