Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +20.6% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Carlsson 37.1% (+20.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 76.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 75.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 74.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 75.7%
75.7%
24.3%
Larkin
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Larkin
Carlsson
Last 5: Larkin 3-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
0
1
Larkin
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Carlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
34.4% (535)
+21.5%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
42.9% (21)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
40.0% (5)
+6.2%
On even strength, Larkin has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Carlsson is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carlsson
Home
56.0% (654)
38.6% (254)
Away
54.8% (639)
31.6% (307)
By Period
Larkin
Carlsson
P1
54.4%
35.9%
P2
55.9%
33.8%
P3
55.2%
34.3%
OT
64.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 18:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 2 | 01:13 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |