Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Carlsson 42.4% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 90.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 90.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 86.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 89.7%
89.7%
10.3%
Larkin
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Larkin
Carlsson
Last 5: Larkin 4-1 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Carlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Carlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
41.8% (648)
+10.8%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
37.3% (51)
+23.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
38.7% (31)
+17.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Carlsson is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (545).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carlsson
Home
54.7% (783)
44.5% (362)
Away
54.3% (816)
38.3% (368)
By Period
Larkin
Carlsson
P1
55.9%
46.3%
P2
56.1%
35.1%
P3
51.1%
43.9%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
43.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |