Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 22-15 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 89.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 88.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 86.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 88.4%
88.4%
11.6%
Larkin
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
15
(37 meetings)
22
15
Larkin
Carlsson
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
9
7
Larkin
Carlsson
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
4
Larkin
Carlsson
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
8
4
Larkin
Carlsson
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
41.0% (1,844)
+10.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
42.9% (154)
+15.6%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
35.0% (120)
+15.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carlsson
Home
54.0% (6,238)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Larkin
Carlsson
P1
52.7%
43.3%
P2
53.1%
36.5%
P3
52.1%
43.2%
OT
58.4%
40.7%
Final 5 min
53.2%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 15:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |