Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Carlsson 45.0% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 66.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 76.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 71.0%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Larkin
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
12
(27 meetings)
15
12
Larkin
Carlsson
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Larkin
Carlsson
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
Carlsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
3
Larkin
Carlsson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
45.5% (661)
+6.2%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
46.3% (82)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
33.3% (84)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Carlsson is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (540).
Home / Away
Larkin
Carlsson
Home
52.4% (647)
42.5% (428)
Away
52.7% (643)
46.4% (399)
By Period
Larkin
Carlsson
P1
52.2%
45.4%
P2
53.1%
39.7%
P3
51.7%
48.5%
OT
61.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:13 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 03:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:58 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 15:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |