Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Kastelic 55.9% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 80.1%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 53.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 77.6%
77.6%
22.4%
Larkin
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Larkin
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
58.0% (476)
-4.4%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
75.0% (8)
-15.7%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
50.9% (106)
-2.2%
On power play, Kastelic has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kastelic
Home
56.6% (700)
64.9% (265)
Away
52.1% (655)
50.5% (325)
By Period
Larkin
Kastelic
P1
55.4%
58.5%
P2
54.7%
55.6%
P3
52.7%
56.8%
Final 5 min
57.0%
62.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |