Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Kastelic 53.5% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 62.0%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 54.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Larkin
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Larkin
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Kastelic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
53.4% (337)
+2.5%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
100.0% (4)
-42.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
75.0% (8)
-28.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +42.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kastelic
Home
56.0% (654)
56.2% (162)
Away
54.8% (639)
52.9% (187)
By Period
Larkin
Kastelic
P1
54.4%
58.2%
P2
55.9%
58.8%
P3
55.2%
45.4%
Final 5 min
53.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 07:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |