Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.5% vs 54.4%). Look for Kastelic on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Kastelic 53.4% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 83.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 64.7%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 52.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Larkin
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larkin
Kastelic
Last 6: Larkin 4-2 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Kastelic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
2
Larkin
Kastelic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
55.4% (345)
-2.8%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
50.0% (4)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
35.3% (17)
+20.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. Kastelic is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kastelic
Home
54.7% (783)
50.6% (162)
Away
54.3% (816)
57.4% (204)
By Period
Larkin
Kastelic
P1
55.9%
61.5%
P2
56.1%
52.8%
P3
51.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 09:32 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 01:19 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 01:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 07:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 06:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:55 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |