Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 85.8%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 60.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Larkin
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
7
(17 meetings)
10
7
Larkin
Kastelic
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
0
Larkin
Kastelic
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
4
Larkin
Kastelic
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
3
Larkin
Kastelic
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
57.0% (1,613)
-5.3%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
80.0% (25)
-21.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
53.6% (274)
-3.4%
On power play, Kastelic has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Home / Away
Larkin
Kastelic
Home
54.0% (6,238)
58.9% (895)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
55.1% (1,017)
By Period
Larkin
Kastelic
P1
52.7%
58.5%
P2
53.1%
56.9%
P3
52.1%
55.3%
OT
58.4%
53.8%
Final 5 min
53.2%
59.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 29, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 14:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 09:32 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 01:19 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 01:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 07:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 06:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:55 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 3 | 07:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |