Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Duchene 52.1% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 69.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 72.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 69.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
Larkin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Larkin
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
53.0% (723)
-0.4%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
49.5% (101)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
43.8% (16)
+12.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Larkin
Duchene
Home
54.7% (783)
54.9% (408)
Away
54.3% (816)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Larkin
Duchene
P1
55.9%
52.5%
P2
56.1%
51.7%
P3
51.1%
53.6%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 16:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |