Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 52.0%). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Duchene 51.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 62.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 62.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 60.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Larkin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Larkin
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
51.2% (324)
+0.5%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
60.4% (53)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
16.7% (6)
+31.5%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +31.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Larkin
Duchene
Home
52.4% (647)
51.6% (182)
Away
52.7% (643)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Larkin
Duchene
P1
52.2%
49.6%
P2
53.1%
56.2%
P3
51.7%
48.6%
OT
61.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |