Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 24 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Duchene 54.1% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 34-30 in 64 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 51.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 53.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 50.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Larkin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
34
(64 meetings)
30
34
Larkin
Duchene
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
18
Larkin
Duchene
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
17
8
Larkin
Duchene
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
7
8
Larkin
Duchene
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
53.9% (10,396)
-2.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
56.9% (1,665)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
49.1% (468)
+1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Larkin
Duchene
Home
54.0% (6,238)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Larkin
Duchene
P1
52.7%
54.5%
P2
53.1%
54.5%
P3
52.1%
53.4%
OT
58.4%
56.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 16:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 3 | 13:36 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 14:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 3 | 15:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 1 | 03:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |