Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (54% H2H, 37 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Domi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Domi 48.8% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Domi leads 40-38 in 78 meetings
Offensive zone
Domi 57.1%
Defensive zone
Domi 55.7%
Neutral zone
Domi 55.7%
Result
Max Domi favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Larkin
Domi
Head-to-Head Record
38
-
40
(78 meetings)
38
40
Larkin
Domi
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Domi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
17
20
Larkin
Domi
37 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Domi
6
7
Larkin
Domi
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
15
13
Larkin
Domi
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Domi
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
48.1% (4,296)
+3.6%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
53.4% (633)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
48.8% (41)
+1.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Domi shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Domi is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,341).
Home / Away
Larkin
Domi
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.7% (2,604)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
47.8% (2,366)
By Period
Larkin
Domi
P1
52.7%
48.7%
P2
53.1%
48.3%
P3
52.1%
49.8%
OT
58.4%
43.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 11:11 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 15:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 11:53 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 09:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 09:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 2 | 02:17 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 05:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Max Domi |