Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Barron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Barron 47.1% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 94.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 63.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 90.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 88.9%
88.9%
11.1%
Larkin
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Larkin
Barron
Last 7: Larkin 6-1 Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
0
Larkin
Barron
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
0
1
Larkin
Barron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Barron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
48.8% (371)
+2.9%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
33.3% (3)
+25.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
42.0% (174)
+6.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Barron is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Home / Away
Larkin
Barron
Home
52.4% (647)
44.9% (283)
Away
52.7% (643)
48.3% (265)
By Period
Larkin
Barron
P1
52.2%
44.8%
P2
53.1%
50.7%
P3
51.7%
43.6%
OT
61.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 13:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |