Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Barron shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Barron 48.2% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 94.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 67.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 84.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 86.2%
86.2%
13.8%
Larkin
Barron
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Larkin
Barron
Last 9: Larkin 7-2 Barron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
Barron
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barron
0
2
Larkin
Barron
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
0
Larkin
Barron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Barron
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
49.5% (731)
+2.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
50.0% (6)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
42.6% (209)
+7.6%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barron shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Barron is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Larkin
Barron
Home
54.0% (6,238)
45.5% (457)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
50.3% (489)
By Period
Larkin
Barron
P1
52.7%
47.6%
P2
53.1%
51.3%
P3
52.1%
45.0%
OT
58.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Barron
48.0%▲
41.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 13:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:17 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Morgan Barron |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:13 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |