Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Larkin wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.3% vs MacKinnon 43.8% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 93.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 83.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 91.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 91.3%
91.3%
8.7%
Larkin
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
2
(11 meetings)
9
2
Larkin
MacKinnon
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
0
Larkin
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (973)
44.4% (743)
+6.6%
Power Play
59.5% (252)
35.7% (70)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (137)
25.9% (27)
+23.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larkin is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Larkin shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Larkin
MacKinnon
Home
54.9% (721)
46.4% (394)
Away
49.6% (641)
40.1% (446)
By Period
Larkin
MacKinnon
P1
52.4%
44.4%
P2
50.8%
38.2%
P3
54.4%
46.4%
OT
43.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2020 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2020 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2020 | 3 | 13:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 2, 2020 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2020 | 1 | 16:35 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 20, 2020 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 20, 2020 | 3 | 02:25 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 20, 2020 | 1 | 07:42 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 20, 2020 | 1 | 06:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 20, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |