Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (54% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 15-15 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 58.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 54.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Larkin
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
15
(30 meetings)
15
15
Larkin
MacKinnon
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
7
Larkin
MacKinnon
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
MacKinnon
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Larkin
MacKinnon
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
49.2% (1,266)
+3.4%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
54.9% (193)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
49.1% (55)
+6.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larkin is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (567).
Larkin shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Larkin
MacKinnon
Home
54.7% (783)
50.9% (740)
Away
54.3% (816)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Larkin
MacKinnon
P1
55.9%
50.9%
P2
56.1%
51.8%
P3
51.1%
47.1%
OT
66.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
51.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:22 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:29 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:22 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 03:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 16:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 12:52 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 08:05 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 14:20 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |