Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 61.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 60.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Larkin
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Larkin
MacKinnon
Last 5: Larkin 2-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Larkin
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
45.5% (1,190)
+10.4%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
56.4% (94)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
40.0% (30)
+6.2%
On even strength, Larkin has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Larkin
MacKinnon
Home
56.0% (654)
47.8% (670)
Away
54.8% (639)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Larkin
MacKinnon
P1
54.4%
45.3%
P2
55.9%
48.5%
P3
55.2%
45.0%
OT
64.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 08:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |