Dylan Larkin vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 28 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 70-56 in 126 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 75.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 80.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 80.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 78.6%
78.6%
21.4%
Larkin
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
70
-
56
(126 meetings)
70
56
Larkin
MacKinnon
Last 10: Larkin 1-9 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
26
24
Larkin
MacKinnon
50 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
19
9
Larkin
MacKinnon
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
25
23
Larkin
MacKinnon
48 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
46.1% (11,218)
+5.6%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
53.3% (1,412)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
42.8% (502)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Larkin
MacKinnon
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Larkin
MacKinnon
P1
52.7%
47.4%
P2
53.1%
46.6%
P3
52.1%
46.1%
OT
58.4%
48.4%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 08:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 16:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 16:18 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 14:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 13:26 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |