Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+10.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 83.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 73.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 83.5%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 79.9%
79.9%
20.1%
Larkin
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Larkin
MacKinnon
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
2
Larkin
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
2
Larkin
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
44.7% (1,053)
+8.9%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
36.8% (95)
+22.5%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
65.0% (20)
-16.3%
On power play, Larkin has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Larkin is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Larkin shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Larkin
MacKinnon
Home
56.6% (700)
49.4% (553)
Away
52.1% (655)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Larkin
MacKinnon
P1
55.4%
45.3%
P2
54.7%
42.7%
P3
52.7%
45.1%
OT
59.1%
46.2%
Final 5 min
57.0%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 06:20 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 17:32 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 00:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |