Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.6% vs 52.2%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Roy 51.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 77.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 57.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 64.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Larkin
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Larkin
Roy
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
0
Larkin
Roy
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
3
Larkin
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
51.9% (547)
-0.2%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
54.1% (37)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
53.3% (92)
-5.1%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Larkin
Roy
Home
52.4% (647)
54.0% (328)
Away
52.7% (643)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Larkin
Roy
P1
52.2%
53.5%
P2
53.1%
51.6%
P3
51.7%
51.6%
Final 5 min
55.2%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:37 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:40 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |