Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.9% vs 52.3%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Roy 52.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 80.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 58.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 65.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Larkin
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Larkin
Roy
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
0
Larkin
Roy
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
3
Larkin
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (1,025)
52.3% (589)
-0.8%
Power Play
60.0% (285)
50.0% (40)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
49.5% (182)
53.3% (92)
-3.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Larkin is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Larkin shoots left. Roy is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (495).
Home / Away
Larkin
Roy
Home
52.7% (767)
55.1% (350)
Away
53.1% (725)
49.6% (371)
By Period
Larkin
Roy
P1
52.0%
53.4%
P2
53.0%
51.1%
P3
52.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
56.4%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
64.0%▲
55.0%
52.9%
Roy
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:37 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:40 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |