Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Roy 48.4% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 30-14 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 95.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 82.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 86.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 88.4%
88.4%
11.6%
Larkin
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
14
(44 meetings)
30
14
Larkin
Roy
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
15
1
Larkin
Roy
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
3
9
Larkin
Roy
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
12
4
Larkin
Roy
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
48.7% (3,719)
+3.0%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
49.5% (283)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
45.5% (477)
+4.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Larkin
Roy
Home
54.0% (6,238)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Larkin
Roy
P1
52.7%
50.8%
P2
53.1%
46.3%
P3
52.1%
48.1%
OT
58.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:37 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:40 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:40 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:42 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 02:38 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:36 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:11 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:38 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:47 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |