Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Roy 47.2% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 79.8%
Defensive zone
Roy 53.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 65.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Larkin
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Larkin
Roy
Last 7: Larkin 4-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Larkin
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
47.5% (617)
+8.4%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
39.6% (53)
+17.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
46.4% (97)
-0.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Larkin
Roy
Home
56.0% (654)
47.2% (398)
Away
54.8% (639)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Larkin
Roy
P1
54.4%
48.6%
P2
55.9%
48.8%
P3
55.2%
43.9%
OT
64.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
53.8%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:47 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:26 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:58 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:31 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |