Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.1% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 51.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 73.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 59.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Larkin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Larkin
O'Reilly
Last 10: Larkin 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
2
Larkin
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Larkin
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (903)
56.6% (1,064)
-4.8%
Power Play
56.0% (225)
60.4% (260)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (76)
54.0% (261)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Larkin shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Larkin
O'Reilly
Home
55.6% (662)
54.9% (801)
Away
48.3% (542)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Larkin
O'Reilly
P1
49.9%
58.0%
P2
52.7%
56.7%
P3
53.0%
55.4%
OT
68.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 16:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 10:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 02:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 05:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 03:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 17:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 15:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 03:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 19:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |