Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-1.4%)
Offensive zone
Larkin 66.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 59.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Larkin
O'Reilly
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
56.1% (690)
-2.5%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
64.6% (96)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
45.9% (109)
+2.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Larkin
O'Reilly
Home
56.6% (700)
58.3% (408)
Away
52.1% (655)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Larkin
O'Reilly
P1
55.4%
57.7%
P2
54.7%
54.8%
P3
52.7%
55.2%
OT
59.1%
45.5%
Final 5 min
57.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%