Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 17-6 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 52.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 71.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.2%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 59.9%
59.9%
40.1%
Larkin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
6
(23 meetings)
17
6
Larkin
O'Reilly
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
11
0
Larkin
O'Reilly
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Larkin
O'Reilly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
55.0% (1,084)
+0.9%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
56.8% (303)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
40.3% (149)
+5.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Larkin
O'Reilly
Home
56.0% (654)
54.8% (759)
Away
54.8% (639)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Larkin
O'Reilly
P1
54.4%
55.3%
P2
55.9%
51.9%
P3
55.2%
54.2%
OT
64.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:53 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 19:04 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:34 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 13:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 19:07 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 03:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |