Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 55.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 57.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Larkin
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
9
(22 meetings)
13
9
Larkin
O'Reilly
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
Larkin
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
11
0
Larkin
O'Reilly
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Larkin
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
56.2% (983)
-3.6%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
55.5% (254)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
52.0% (102)
+3.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Larkin
O'Reilly
Home
54.7% (783)
56.2% (697)
Away
54.3% (816)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Larkin
O'Reilly
P1
55.9%
54.5%
P2
56.1%
55.5%
P3
51.1%
57.1%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 17:51 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 03:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:32 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 19:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 15:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |