Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.1% vs Poehling 46.2% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 89.2%
Defensive zone
Poehling 52.3%
Neutral zone
Larkin 69.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Larkin
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larkin
Poehling
Last 6: Larkin 4-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Larkin
Poehling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (886)
46.5% (269)
+7.1%
Power Play
59.3% (317)
66.7% (3)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
48.7% (152)
42.4% (139)
+6.3%
On power play, Poehling has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Larkin shoots left. Poehling is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Home / Away
Larkin
Poehling
Home
56.6% (700)
45.2% (177)
Away
52.1% (655)
45.3% (234)
By Period
Larkin
Poehling
P1
55.4%
47.7%
P2
54.7%
44.4%
P3
52.7%
44.6%
OT
59.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 03:01 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 09:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |