Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Larkin wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Poehling 49.2% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 88.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 56.6%
Neutral zone
Larkin 71.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 76.0%
76.0%
24.0%
Larkin
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Larkin
Poehling
Last 10: Larkin 8-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
5
1
Larkin
Poehling
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Poehling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Poehling
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
50.4% (752)
+5.5%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
37.0% (27)
+20.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
45.3% (159)
+0.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Larkin shoots left. Poehling is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Home / Away
Larkin
Poehling
Home
56.0% (654)
51.2% (467)
Away
54.8% (639)
47.1% (471)
By Period
Larkin
Poehling
P1
54.4%
54.6%
P2
55.9%
46.7%
P3
55.2%
46.7%
OT
64.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
53.8%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:13 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 11:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:37 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 07:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 08:26 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 19:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 1 | 15:38 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 1 | 14:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 1 | 08:16 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |