Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Poehling 47.4% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 89.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 70.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 89.4%
89.4%
10.6%
Larkin
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Larkin
Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
0
Larkin
Poehling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
49.8% (626)
+1.9%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
58.3% (12)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
38.2% (207)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Larkin shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Larkin
Poehling
Home
52.4% (647)
47.3% (404)
Away
52.7% (643)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Larkin
Poehling
P1
52.2%
53.5%
P2
53.1%
39.4%
P3
51.7%
49.1%
OT
61.3%
35.7%
Final 5 min
55.2%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 04:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |