Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Poehling 50.8% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 54.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Larkin
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Larkin
Poehling
Last 6: Larkin 4-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Poehling
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Larkin
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,117)
52.6% (622)
+0.0%
Power Play
60.7% (305)
58.3% (12)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
55.9% (177)
39.8% (103)
+16.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Larkin shoots left. Poehling is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Home / Away
Larkin
Poehling
Home
54.7% (783)
53.2% (393)
Away
54.3% (816)
48.3% (344)
By Period
Larkin
Poehling
P1
55.9%
50.9%
P2
56.1%
56.2%
P3
51.1%
46.1%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.8%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 11:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:09 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 05:03 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:03 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |