Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +18.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Larkin wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 54.2% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+18.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 76.5%
Defensive zone
Larkin 94.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 81.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 91.2%
91.2%
8.8%
Larkin
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Larkin
Reinhart
Last 5: Larkin 4-1 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Reinhart
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
1
Larkin
Reinhart
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (1,228)
34.8% (69)
+18.1%
Power Play
63.1% (214)
41.2% (17)
+21.9%
Penalty Kill
55.2% (145)
0.0% (1)
+55.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +55.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Larkin is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (502).
Larkin shoots left. Reinhart is 36.0% vs left-shot opponents (75).
Home / Away
Larkin
Reinhart
Home
55.8% (805)
38.6% (44)
Away
53.2% (782)
32.6% (43)
By Period
Larkin
Reinhart
P1
55.2%
30.8%
P2
53.3%
32.0%
P3
55.1%
45.5%
OT
51.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
35.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2019 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 2 | 18:27 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 1 | 14:00 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 28, 2019 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |