Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Reinhart leads 26-24 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Reinhart 57.0%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 56.1%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 58.3%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Larkin
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
26
(50 meetings)
24
26
Larkin
Reinhart
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
12
11
Larkin
Reinhart
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
11
12
Larkin
Reinhart
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reinhart
1
3
Larkin
Reinhart
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
42.5% (2,173)
+9.2%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
46.5% (525)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
41.3% (339)
+8.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Home / Away
Larkin
Reinhart
Home
54.0% (6,238)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
Larkin
Reinhart
P1
52.7%
44.5%
P2
53.1%
40.5%
P3
52.1%
44.5%
OT
58.4%
43.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:29 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:25 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:00 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 02:22 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 12:11 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 14:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 3 | 14:23 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 1 | 13:18 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |