Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs Reinhart 45.1% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Reinhart leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Reinhart 76.5%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 68.2%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 77.5%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 73.6%
26.4%
73.6%
Larkin
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Larkin
Reinhart
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
5
Larkin
Reinhart
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
2
6
Larkin
Reinhart
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
2
Larkin
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
44.6% (345)
+11.3%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
43.3% (97)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
43.2% (88)
+3.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. Reinhart is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Larkin
Reinhart
Home
56.0% (654)
47.9% (267)
Away
54.8% (639)
40.3% (263)
By Period
Larkin
Reinhart
P1
54.4%
45.6%
P2
55.9%
42.0%
P3
55.2%
45.4%
OT
64.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.8%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
44.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 02:22 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 12:11 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:58 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 14:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 3 | 14:23 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 1 | 13:18 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:37 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 19:54 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |